Maximizing EBITDA During BFCM: A Financial Modeling Guide for CPG Brands

Black Friday Cyber Monday is the highest-volume selling period of the year for most CPG brands, but revenue alone does not determine success. Heavy discounting, rising acquisition costs, and diminishing returns on ad spend can quickly erode profitability if EBITDA is not actively managed.

This guide provides a practical, “quick and dirty” framework for modeling EBITDA during BFCM and understanding the financial levers that matter most. Using a scenario-based approach, it shows how changes in ad spend, MER, discounts, COGS, and operating expenses impact contribution margin and EBITDA dollars.

What's Inside

• How to model EBITDA for BFCM using ad spend as the primary input

• The core EBITDA levers: selling price, discounts, COGS, marketing efficiency, and fixed opex

• How deteriorating MER at higher spend levels impacts profitability

• Why spending more does not always mean making more during promotional periods

• How to identify diminishing returns on ad spend before they destroy EBITDA

• How to select the most realistic, goal-aligned BFCM scenario

The resource includes a plug-and-play spreadsheet template that allows operators to quickly test multiple BFCM scenarios and identify the spend level that maximizes EBITDA, not just revenue.

Built for CPG founders, CEOs, and finance leaders, this guide helps align marketing decisions with financial outcomes during the most competitive advertising window of the year.